prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 19 New York Giants 28 29.5, 32 St. Louis 16 15.4
75% 10 Pittsburgh 24 32.3, 30 Seattle 0 16.2
75% 6 New York Jets 32 26.9, 20 Jacksonville 3 17.1
72% 14 Washington 22 27.3, 26 Arizona 21 19.3
68% 1 New England 35 33.5, 4 San Diego 21 22.8
64% 23 Detroit 48 31.3, 31 Kansas City 3 21.4
63% 11 Buffalo 38 24.2, 22 Oakland 35 16.7
58% 3 Green Bay 30 28.8, 27 Carolina 23 18.3
55% 9 New Orleans 30 27.8, 8 Chicago 13 25.7
55% 7 Houston 23 24.6, 21 Miami 13 21.4
47% 18 Dallas 27 23.3, 24 San Francisco 24 24.1
45% 13 Atlanta 35 24.0, 5 Philadelphia 31 25.8
44% 29 Denver 24 22.7, 17 Cincinnati 22 26.0
38% 15 Tennessee 26 15.2, 2 Baltimore 13 22.9
30% 28 Cleveland 27 17.6, 16 Indianapolis 19 27.8
27% 25 Tampa Bay 24 15.9, 12 Minnesota 20 24.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.90 4 1.17 6 0.91 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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