prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 3 Baltimore 37 26.5, 31 St. Louis 7 11.2
82% 10 Tennessee 17 28.5, 26 Denver 14 16.9
69% 7 San Diego 20 35.8, 32 Kansas City 17 12.6
61% 16 Dallas 18 26.1, 19 Washington 16 21.6
56% 6 New Orleans 40 29.1, 9 Houston 33 24.3
55% 28 Carolina 16 21.3, 24 Jacksonville 10 19.8
55% 5 Pittsburgh 23 24.1, 21 Indianapolis 20 21.0
55% 4 Green Bay 27 25.2, 13 Chicago 17 22.6
53% 15 Tampa Bay 16 24.9, 11 Atlanta 13 23.1
50% 30 Seattle 13 25.2, 29 Arizona 10 25.2
50% 25 Cleveland 17 20.4, 23 Miami 16 20.2
49% 12 Detroit 26 23.4, 20 Minnesota 23 23.9
44% 18 Oakland 34 20.6, 2 New York Jets 24 26.5
44% 14 Buffalo 34 24.1, 1 New England 31 32.2
41% 27 San Francisco 13 19.7, 22 Cincinnati 8 24.2
39% 17 New York Giants 29 23.4, 8 Philadelphia 16 31.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.01 3 1.04 0 0.00 2 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.5 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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