prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 3 Green Bay 49 35.5, 27 Denver 23 17.5
71% 2 Baltimore 34 24.2, 6 New York Jets 17 16.6
68% 14 Chicago 34 22.7, 26 Carolina 29 13.8
67% 20 Washington 17 23.3, 32 St. Louis 10 15.9
67% 4 New Orleans 23 31.2, 28 Jacksonville 10 22.5
67% 1 New England 31 33.1, 17 Oakland 19 25.2
62% 15 Atlanta 30 25.9, 30 Seattle 28 19.5
62% 12 New York Giants 31 29.1, 29 Arizona 27 22.1
60% 11 San Diego 26 27.1, 23 Miami 16 17.9
56% 18 Tampa Bay 24 25.4, 19 Indianapolis 17 20.6
55% 10 Tennessee 31 21.2, 22 Cleveland 13 17.5
47% 13 Detroit 34 26.4, 16 Dallas 30 27.9
47% 9 Houston 17 22.2, 5 Pittsburgh 10 22.9
44% 31 Kansas City 22 19.4, 21 Minnesota 17 25.5
42% 24 Cincinnati 23 21.6, 7 Buffalo 20 26.7
21% 25 San Francisco 24 18.7, 8 Philadelphia 23 28.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.77 6 1.53 2 0.67 1 1.15 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.2 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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