prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 1 New England 30 31.8, 6 New York Jets 21 20.4
74% 4 New Orleans 30 28.8, 26 Carolina 27 20.6
70% 5 Pittsburgh 38 22.1, 8 Tennessee 17 15.7
68% 24 Minnesota 34 28.9, 29 Arizona 10 21.0
62% 7 San Diego 29 28.5, 28 Denver 24 22.9
58% 3 Green Bay 25 29.6, 12 Atlanta 14 26.0
56% 13 Buffalo 31 29.2, 15 Philadelphia 24 26.5
56% 10 Detroit 24 26.4, 14 Chicago 13 23.5
51% 22 San Francisco 48 19.6, 16 Tampa Bay 3 19.4
50% 21 Cincinnati 30 19.9, 27 Jacksonville 20 20.0
33% 20 Oakland 25 21.5, 9 Houston 20 28.4
17% 30 Seattle 36 17.6, 11 New York Giants 25 30.9
15% 31 Kansas City 28 17.9, 18 Indianapolis 24 30.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.48 4 1.13 1 1.35 3 0.40 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 9 8.6 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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