prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 3 Green Bay 24 35.6, 32 St. Louis 3 9.2
89% 4 Pittsburgh 17 29.1, 29 Jacksonville 13 10.7
83% 2 Baltimore 29 28.1, 10 Houston 14 16.3
82% 1 New England 20 36.6, 14 Dallas 16 21.8
79% 7 New York Jets 24 26.9, 24 Miami 6 15.8
78% 15 Atlanta 31 27.6, 26 Carolina 17 18.3
72% 18 Oakland 24 26.1, 25 Cleveland 17 19.2
63% 16 Chicago 39 23.7, 19 Minnesota 10 18.6
56% 20 Cincinnati 27 25.2, 22 Indianapolis 17 22.7
55% 17 New York Giants 27 27.3, 11 Buffalo 24 25.5
53% 12 Philadelphia 20 24.2, 21 Washington 13 23.5
42% 13 San Francisco 25 21.8, 8 Detroit 19 25.1
38% 23 Tampa Bay 26 23.5, 5 New Orleans 20 28.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.35 2 0.80 3 1.31 4 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 11 9.2 1.20
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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