prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 4 Baltimore 30 33.1, 31 Arizona 27 13.0
83% 12 San Francisco 20 24.1, 27 Cleveland 10 13.7
80% 9 Houston 24 26.2, 24 Jacksonville 14 17.4
79% 15 New York Giants 20 27.6, 25 Miami 17 19.1
74% 17 Tennessee 27 28.9, 26 Indianapolis 10 20.5
74% 14 Buffalo 23 26.4, 23 Washington 0 19.1
59% 11 Philadelphia 34 30.0, 13 Dallas 7 25.2
55% 18 Cincinnati 34 22.1, 30 Seattle 12 20.8
55% 16 Detroit 45 27.5, 28 Denver 10 25.7
50% 5 Pittsburgh 25 24.5, 1 New England 17 24.6
45% 20 Minnesota 24 21.2, 22 Carolina 21 22.9
29% 29 Kansas City 23 20.1, 7 San Diego 20 27.1
15% 32 St. Louis 31 14.6, 3 New Orleans 21 33.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.09 0 0.00 5 1.06 3 0.78 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 9 9.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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