2011 Week 9 (6-7 Nov) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 82%   5 New Orleans             27 31.8,    20 Tampa Bay               16 20.6
 79%  11 Houston                 30 25.6,    28 Cleveland               12 16.5
 77%  18 Dallas                  23 29.1,    31 Seattle                 13 19.2
 70%  30 Arizona                 19 25.8,    32 St. Louis               13 19.7
 56%  13 San Francisco           19 20.2,    23 Washington              11 17.2
 56%   9 Atlanta                 31 26.9,    25 Indianapolis             7 24.0
 55%   2 Green Bay               45 26.9,     8 San Diego               38 25.1
 51%   6 New York Jets           27 23.4,    12 Buffalo                 11 23.2

 42%  27 Miami                   31 19.0,    26 Kansas City              3 22.4
 40%   3 Baltimore               23 18.1,     4 Pittsburgh              20 21.8
 35%  17 Cincinnati              24 19.2,    16 Tennessee               17 23.9
 35%  10 Chicago                 30 21.7,     7 Philadelphia            24 26.4
 30%  29 Denver                  38 22.2,    21 Oakland                 24 28.8
 21%  15 New York Giants         24 20.9,     1 New England             20 34.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 1.44   4 0.38   4 0.66   1 1.21   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14   8   9.3 0.86

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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