2011 Week 15 (15-19 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 82%   9 Atlanta                 41 26.2,    22 Jacksonville            14 15.4
 72%  18 Cincinnati              20 24.3,    32 St. Louis               13 16.4
 66%   4 New Orleans             42 29.5,    20 Minnesota               20 23.8
 65%   2 New England             41 30.9,    19 Denver                  23 22.5
 55%  28 Arizona                 20 22.2,    29 Cleveland               17 20.3
 55%  17 Miami                   30 21.9,    27 Buffalo                 23 20.6
 55%  14 Dallas                  31 25.1,    26 Tampa Bay               15 23.8
 55%   7 San Diego               34 24.0,     5 Baltimore               14 22.5
 51%  16 Detroit                 28 26.9,    21 Oakland                 27 26.7

 50%  11 Philadelphia            45 23.8,     6 New York Jets           19 23.8
 45%  23 Indianapolis            27 22.0,    12 Tennessee               13 23.0
 40%  15 San Francisco           20 16.0,     3 Pittsburgh               3 20.5
 23%  30 Seattle                 38 15.9,    10 Chicago                 14 25.9
 21%  24 Washington              23 19.8,    13 New York Giants         10 28.6
 18%  31 Kansas City             19 16.4,     1 Green Bay               14 30.9
 18%  25 Carolina                28 18.0,     8 Houston                 13 28.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                8 1.14   2 1.52   3 0.44   3 0.41   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   9  10.4 0.86

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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