2011 Week 17 (1 Jan) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 87%   7 Atlanta                 45 30.0,    30 Tampa Bay               24 16.7
 84%   1 New England             49 36.5,    25 Buffalo                 21 17.1
 83%   8 Philadelphia            34 28.4,    24 Washington              10 17.4
 81%   3 New Orleans             45 33.1,    20 Carolina                17 19.7
 77%   2 Green Bay               45 34.7,    14 Detroit                 41 21.8
 76%   4 Pittsburgh              13 23.1,    29 Cleveland                9 12.7
 75%  12 San Francisco           34 21.7,    32 St. Louis               27 12.2
 64%  11 New York Giants         31 28.5,    16 Dallas                  14 23.5
 64%   6 San Diego               38 28.1,    22 Oakland                 26 22.9
 62%   5 Baltimore               24 23.8,    18 Cincinnati              16 19.0
 55%  27 Jacksonville            19 22.8,    19 Indianapolis            13 21.6
 52%  28 Arizona                 23 24.0,    23 Seattle                 20 23.5

 47%  17 Miami                   19 20.8,     9 New York Jets           17 21.4
 45%  15 Chicago                 17 22.2,    21 Minnesota               13 23.2
 41%  13 Tennessee               23 20.3,    10 Houston                 22 23.8
 29%  31 Kansas City              7 18.6,    26 Denver                   3 24.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 0.73   3 1.59   4 1.00   4 1.19   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  12  11.0 1.09

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net