2011 Postseason: Wild Card (7-8 Jan) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 71%   3 New Orleans             45 35.4,    15 Detroit                 28 24.1
 63%  12 Houston                 31 26.1,    18 Cincinnati              10 21.1
 55%  10 New York Giants         24 26.1,     8 Atlanta                  2 24.7

 30%  27 Denver                  29 17.8,     4 Pittsburgh              23 25.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%

                1 1.81   2 0.75   1 1.40   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):   4   3   2.6 1.16
  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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