2012 Week 5 (4-8 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 82%   1 New England             31 38.0,    17 Denver                  21 22.1
 79%   3 New York Giants         41 33.5,    28 Cleveland               27 16.5
 71%   9 Pittsburgh              16 29.2,    22 Philadelphia            14 18.3
 63%   2 Atlanta                 24 31.9,    20 Washington              17 23.0
 61%   7 San Francisco           45 29.5,    14 Buffalo                  3 21.3
 58%  15 Minnesota               30 28.9,    21 Tennessee                7 21.5
 57%  18 Seattle                 16 21.9,    27 Carolina                12 20.4
 57%  10 Chicago                 41 25.4,    31 Jacksonville             3 19.2
 57%   6 Baltimore                9 27.7,    24 Kansas City              6 20.6
 57%   5 Houston                 23 27.8,    19 New York Jets           17 23.2

 43%  25 Indianapolis            30 24.7,     8 Green Bay               27 29.9
 43%  16 Miami                   17 23.0,    11 Cincinnati              13 27.7
 41%  13 New Orleans             31 30.5,     4 San Diego               24 32.0
 39%  32 St. Louis               17 18.1,    12 Arizona                  3 26.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                8 1.09   3 1.08   2 1.33   1 1.21   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14  10   8.8 1.14

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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