prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 5 Green Bay 24 35.6, 31 Jacksonville 15 15.9
76% 6 Chicago 23 30.7, 30 Carolina 22 15.0
70% 2 New England 45 33.0, 32 St. Louis 7 18.3
65% 8 Pittsburgh 27 31.6, 25 Washington 12 18.6
61% 1 New York Giants 29 31.2, 21 Dallas 24 24.2
57% 10 San Francisco 24 22.1, 19 Arizona 3 19.3
56% 3 Atlanta 30 26.6, 20 Philadelphia 17 22.3
55% 16 Denver 34 31.2, 11 New Orleans 14 30.2
53% 22 Detroit 28 25.2, 17 Seattle 24 24.7
44% 13 Miami 30 19.1, 14 New York Jets 9 22.9
43% 27 Oakland 26 23.5, 29 Kansas City 16 25.9
42% 28 Cleveland 7 18.9, 7 San Diego 6 27.3
42% 24 Indianapolis 19 23.5, 18 Tennessee 13 29.6
34% 26 Tampa Bay 36 20.8, 15 Minnesota 17 29.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.89 3 1.04 2 1.37 1 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 8.7 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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