prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 3 Green Bay 31 32.9, 22 Arizona 17 19.0
80% 4 Houston 21 34.6, 23 Buffalo 9 22.3
76% 10 San Diego 31 29.9, 29 Kansas City 13 16.0
75% 5 Atlanta 19 30.8, 24 Dallas 13 18.4
71% 12 New Orleans 28 31.3, 20 Philadelphia 13 25.1
58% 7 Chicago 51 26.5, 16 Tennessee 20 24.3
57% 21 Detroit 31 28.5, 31 Jacksonville 14 25.7
57% 17 Seattle 30 23.4, 18 Minnesota 20 19.5
57% 8 Baltimore 25 23.8, 28 Cleveland 15 17.3
52% 25 Indianapolis 23 23.5, 13 Miami 20 23.0
46% 11 Denver 31 25.8, 14 Cincinnati 23 26.7
44% 19 Tampa Bay 42 26.5, 27 Oakland 32 27.6
43% 30 Carolina 21 21.8, 26 Washington 13 27.3
41% 6 Pittsburgh 24 23.7, 2 New York Giants 20 30.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.98 0 0.00 3 1.35 2 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.9 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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