2012 Week 11 (15-19 Nov) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 91%   1 New England             59 37.8,    21 Indianapolis            24 20.4
 86%   3 Houston                 43 33.6,    31 Jacksonville            37 14.3
 76%   4 Atlanta                 23 29.3,    23 Arizona                 19 17.8
 65%   2 Green Bay               24 33.8,    17 Detroit                 20 28.1
 64%  11 New Orleans             38 34.9,    30 Oakland                 17 28.0
 56%  20 New York Jets           27 24.5,    32 St. Louis               13 18.6
 56%  19 Dallas                  23 24.3,    27 Cleveland               20 17.5
 56%  16 Tampa Bay               27 27.2,    29 Carolina                21 23.9
 56%  13 Cincinnati              28 23.8,    28 Kansas City              6 21.9
 56%  12 Denver                  30 26.6,     9 San Diego               23 24.2
 55%  10 San Francisco           32 22.6,     8 Chicago                  7 21.0
 52%  26 Washington              31 24.9,    22 Philadelphia             6 24.3
 51%  25 Buffalo                 19 23.3,    18 Miami                   14 23.1

 44%   5 Baltimore               13 21.3,     6 Pittsburgh              10 25.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 1.62   2 1.55   1 1.31   1 1.16   1 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14  13   8.8 1.48

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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