prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 5 Green Bay 23 32.8, 21 Minnesota 14 20.0
72% 1 New England 23 32.4, 20 Miami 16 21.3
66% 22 Buffalo 34 28.6, 31 Jacksonville 18 19.3
66% 10 Denver 31 31.9, 17 Tampa Bay 23 23.7
60% 18 Dallas 38 26.9, 25 Philadelphia 33 21.1
60% 7 Atlanta 23 31.0, 9 New Orleans 13 26.9
59% 19 New York Jets 7 26.1, 26 Arizona 6 20.3
57% 27 Cleveland 20 24.7, 30 Oakland 17 22.1
57% 2 Houston 24 28.7, 14 Tennessee 10 25.5
55% 29 Kansas City 27 21.9, 28 Carolina 21 20.5
43% 15 Seattle 23 19.4, 12 Chicago 17 25.1
43% 11 Cincinnati 20 23.0, 13 San Diego 13 26.2
42% 6 Pittsburgh 23 19.2, 4 Baltimore 20 25.9
39% 24 Indianapolis 35 27.0, 16 Detroit 33 31.7
39% 23 Washington 17 22.8, 3 New York Giants 16 30.6
36% 32 St. Louis 16 14.8, 8 San Francisco 13 25.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.08 6 0.79 2 1.34 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.9 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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