prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 1 New England 42 36.3, 2 Houston 14 25.4
81% 5 Green Bay 27 36.1, 17 Detroit 20 25.0
69% 11 Denver 26 32.0, 31 Oakland 13 22.9
69% 3 New York Giants 52 32.8, 9 New Orleans 27 26.5
65% 14 Seattle 58 25.5, 25 Arizona 0 17.9
62% 8 San Francisco 27 25.0, 21 Miami 13 15.4
57% 24 Cleveland 30 22.0, 29 Kansas City 7 16.6
57% 18 New York Jets 17 23.5, 30 Jacksonville 10 19.9
55% 23 Indianapolis 27 27.6, 15 Tennessee 23 26.2
53% 19 Minnesota 21 23.8, 12 Chicago 14 22.9
43% 27 Philadelphia 23 24.6, 20 Tampa Bay 21 29.6
41% 26 Washington 31 20.1, 4 Baltimore 28 28.1
41% 16 Dallas 20 21.7, 10 Cincinnati 19 27.6
39% 28 Carolina 30 20.3, 7 Atlanta 20 27.6
37% 13 San Diego 34 18.5, 6 Pittsburgh 24 26.1
31% 32 St. Louis 15 17.9, 22 Buffalo 12 28.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.00 7 0.88 0 0.00 2 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.2 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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