prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
72% 5 Houston 29 32.5, 21 Indianapolis 17 22.1
69% 11 New Orleans 41 35.0, 22 Tampa Bay 0 26.3
62% 23 Miami 24 25.4, 30 Jacksonville 3 16.7
57% 19 Minnesota 36 24.0, 31 St. Louis 22 19.6
57% 15 Tennessee 14 25.8, 16 New York Jets 10 21.0
57% 12 Cincinnati 34 25.3, 24 Philadelphia 13 23.4
55% 4 Green Bay 21 26.4, 13 Chicago 13 25.3
54% 14 Seattle 50 23.7, 25 Buffalo 17 22.6
52% 32 Oakland 15 24.4, 29 Kansas City 0 23.8
49% 7 Atlanta 34 26.7, 2 New York Giants 0 26.9
45% 18 Dallas 27 22.0, 6 Pittsburgh 24 23.6
43% 28 Arizona 38 26.1, 17 Detroit 10 28.2
43% 26 Washington 38 20.6, 20 Cleveland 21 23.4
40% 10 Denver 34 21.6, 3 Baltimore 17 29.1
27% 27 Carolina 31 18.1, 9 San Diego 7 29.8
21% 8 San Francisco 41 19.5, 1 New England 34 34.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.98 2 1.53 3 0.45 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 9.7 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net