prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 1 New England 23 36.4, 31 Jacksonville 16 19.0
70% 2 Green Bay 55 31.4, 15 Tennessee 7 21.8
68% 6 Denver 34 29.1, 26 Cleveland 12 17.5
65% 23 Carolina 17 29.2, 30 Oakland 6 21.4
62% 3 Atlanta 31 31.1, 22 Detroit 18 25.3
60% 18 Miami 24 26.5, 28 Buffalo 10 19.9
57% 14 Chicago 28 23.7, 24 Arizona 13 21.5
57% 7 Baltimore 33 27.3, 4 New York Giants 14 23.9
56% 21 Indianapolis 20 24.3, 29 Kansas City 13 22.7
55% 13 Seattle 42 22.8, 8 San Francisco 13 21.3
47% 10 New Orleans 34 28.7, 16 Dallas 31 29.3
44% 12 San Diego 27 21.2, 17 New York Jets 17 22.6
43% 20 Washington 27 24.5, 25 Philadelphia 20 26.5
43% 11 Cincinnati 13 20.9, 9 Pittsburgh 10 25.8
33% 32 St. Louis 28 20.0, 27 Tampa Bay 13 29.2
31% 19 Minnesota 23 21.1, 5 Houston 6 30.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.98 6 1.00 0 0.00 1 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.9 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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