prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 1 New England 41 35.9, 12 Houston 28 21.5
61% 3 Atlanta 30 27.9, 13 Seattle 28 19.9
48% 9 San Francisco 45 25.4, 2 Green Bay 31 26.1
43% 5 Baltimore 38 23.7, 6 Denver 35 26.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 1 1.63 0 0.00 1 1.14 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.6 0.77
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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