prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
58% 18 Indianapolis 21 31.4, 32 Oakland 17 18.5
58% 1 New England 23 32.7, 27 Buffalo 21 21.8
57% 9 Chicago 24 22.2, 10 Cincinnati 21 18.4
57% 7 Seattle 12 22.3, 24 Carolina 7 18.2
57% 4 San Francisco 34 27.1, 5 Green Bay 28 23.2
56% 20 New York Jets 18 23.5, 19 Tampa Bay 17 20.0
54% 8 Denver 49 24.9, 3 Baltimore 27 23.0
51% 21 Miami 23 20.2, 28 Cleveland 10 19.6
48% 15 Dallas 36 23.6, 6 New York Giants 31 24.4
47% 29 St. Louis 27 18.4, 22 Arizona 24 20.1
47% 14 New Orleans 23 26.1, 2 Atlanta 17 27.8
46% 12 Houston 31 24.0, 16 San Diego 28 26.5
45% 26 Detroit 34 25.5, 13 Minnesota 24 28.0
44% 31 Kansas City 28 16.9, 30 Jacksonville 2 20.7
42% 23 Tennessee 16 17.6, 11 Pittsburgh 9 27.4
41% 25 Philadelphia 33 20.5, 17 Washington 27 27.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 8.9 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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