prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 2 New England 23 33.5, 27 Tampa Bay 3 17.9
89% 1 Denver 37 37.0, 31 Oakland 21 15.3
88% 4 Seattle 45 26.8, 32 Jacksonville 17 6.4
78% 6 New Orleans 31 29.9, 25 Arizona 7 18.8
68% 13 New York Jets 27 23.6, 22 Buffalo 20 16.1
62% 5 Chicago 40 20.4, 19 Pittsburgh 23 19.0
61% 21 Dallas 31 27.3, 29 St. Louis 7 21.0
61% 11 Baltimore 30 32.1, 14 Houston 9 27.0
61% 10 Miami 27 22.9, 9 Atlanta 23 19.7
60% 12 Tennessee 20 25.3, 15 San Diego 17 20.8
49% 28 Carolina 38 24.1, 17 New York Giants 0 24.3
43% 8 Cincinnati 34 24.0, 3 Green Bay 30 24.9
39% 26 Detroit 27 26.0, 23 Washington 20 30.3
38% 16 Kansas City 26 21.2, 20 Philadelphia 16 23.3
29% 24 Indianapolis 27 17.9, 7 San Francisco 7 28.0
22% 30 Cleveland 31 18.1, 18 Minnesota 27 28.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.59 7 1.15 3 0.44 2 1.13 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 11.0 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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