prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 Denver 52 36.6, 26 Philadelphia 20 18.9
79% 4 New Orleans 38 26.8, 10 Miami 17 18.9
76% 11 Indianapolis 37 25.8, 32 Jacksonville 3 14.3
68% 17 Kansas City 31 26.8, 29 New York Giants 7 18.8
63% 12 Tennessee 38 21.0, 16 New York Jets 13 15.3
62% 18 San Francisco 35 23.8, 31 St. Louis 11 21.0
62% 15 San Diego 30 25.8, 13 Dallas 21 23.2
61% 23 Minnesota 34 26.7, 21 Pittsburgh 27 23.3
61% 3 Seattle 23 28.3, 19 Houston 20 23.1
60% 2 New England 30 26.2, 14 Atlanta 23 22.7
45% 24 Washington 24 23.5, 30 Oakland 14 24.0
40% 25 Cleveland 17 19.5, 8 Cincinnati 6 23.9
39% 28 Arizona 13 16.5, 27 Tampa Bay 10 20.4
38% 22 Buffalo 23 21.7, 7 Baltimore 20 25.0
38% 20 Detroit 40 23.9, 5 Chicago 32 28.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 11 1.03 2 1.29 1 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 10 9.8 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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