prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 5 Green Bay 22 36.0, 22 Detroit 9 24.3
69% 30 St. Louis 34 25.2, 32 Jacksonville 20 16.3
63% 8 Indianapolis 34 22.4, 4 Seattle 28 20.8
61% 17 San Francisco 34 29.0, 21 Houston 3 24.5
61% 2 Denver 51 29.4, 15 Dallas 48 24.8
52% 7 Baltimore 26 20.3, 16 Miami 23 20.1
50% 24 Cleveland 37 22.2, 18 Buffalo 24 22.2
40% 11 Kansas City 26 15.6, 9 Tennessee 17 20.9
40% 3 New Orleans 26 26.7, 6 Chicago 18 27.5
39% 31 Oakland 27 20.9, 14 San Diego 17 26.1
39% 12 Cincinnati 13 20.4, 1 New England 6 25.3
38% 28 Philadelphia 36 26.3, 29 New York Giants 21 28.8
38% 25 Arizona 22 15.1, 10 Carolina 6 18.7
28% 26 New York Jets 30 18.0, 13 Atlanta 28 27.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.90 8 0.80 1 0.00 1 1.14 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 8.8 0.80
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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