2013 Week 6 (10-14 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 86%   3 Denver                  35 41.3,    32 Jacksonville            19 16.7
 77%  10 Chicago                 27 31.8,    29 New York Giants         21 18.3
 74%  11 Kansas City             24 25.3,    31 Oakland                  7 12.3
 67%  17 Dallas                  31 29.3,    25 Washington              16 22.4
 66%   7 Seattle                 20 25.5,    13 Tennessee               13 18.4
 65%   8 San Francisco           32 22.5,    19 Arizona                 20 14.4
 62%   9 Cincinnati              27 22.8,    24 Buffalo                 24 20.3
 60%   2 New England             30 26.7,     1 New Orleans             27 22.6
 52%  12 San Diego               19 24.9,     5 Indianapolis             9 24.7

 39%  30 St. Louis               38 23.6,    27 Houston                 13 30.2
 39%  26 Philadelphia            31 20.7,    28 Tampa Bay               20 23.6
 39%  20 Pittsburgh              19 20.0,    22 New York Jets            6 23.3
 39%  16 Carolina                35 21.9,    21 Minnesota               10 24.6
 39%   4 Green Bay               19 23.9,     6 Baltimore               17 27.2
 37%  18 Detroit                 31 23.8,    23 Cleveland               17 25.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 1.80  10 0.64   2 1.33   1 1.16   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  15   9   9.8 0.92

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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