prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 2 New Orleans 35 34.4, 25 Buffalo 17 19.1
86% 1 New England 27 28.3, 17 Miami 17 15.5
71% 11 Kansas City 23 25.7, 29 Cleveland 17 14.3
68% 4 Denver 45 37.5, 20 Washington 21 26.0
66% 5 San Francisco 42 24.9, 32 Jacksonville 10 14.7
65% 9 Cincinnati 49 23.8, 24 New York Jets 9 15.5
65% 3 Green Bay 44 30.1, 26 Minnesota 31 23.1
63% 15 Carolina 31 20.1, 28 Tampa Bay 13 17.9
61% 6 Seattle 14 24.3, 27 St. Louis 9 19.7
59% 19 Detroit 31 27.5, 14 Dallas 30 26.7
41% 22 Arizona 27 22.6, 13 Atlanta 13 23.5
40% 31 Oakland 21 16.5, 16 Pittsburgh 18 21.8
40% 23 New York Giants 15 22.4, 21 Philadelphia 7 26.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.56 7 1.34 1 1.40 2 1.14 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 10 8.7 1.15
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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