prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 2 New Orleans 49 32.3, 14 Dallas 17 22.6
70% 23 New York Giants 24 27.8, 31 Oakland 20 17.6
65% 15 Pittsburgh 23 27.3, 25 Buffalo 10 19.7
63% 19 Arizona 27 30.6, 30 Houston 24 22.1
62% 26 Minnesota 34 27.9, 22 Washington 27 25.5
62% 7 Baltimore 20 21.3, 5 Cincinnati 17 18.4
50% 11 Seattle 33 24.3, 20 Atlanta 10 24.2
49% 27 Tampa Bay 22 21.6, 18 Miami 19 21.8
41% 4 Denver 28 28.3, 10 San Diego 20 29.3
39% 9 Carolina 10 17.6, 6 San Francisco 9 22.4
33% 21 Detroit 21 23.2, 12 Chicago 19 30.3
18% 17 Philadelphia 27 21.4, 3 Green Bay 13 32.4
16% 32 Jacksonville 29 13.5, 16 Tennessee 27 28.3
14% 29 St. Louis 38 16.2, 8 Indianapolis 8 29.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.62 7 1.11 0 0.00 4 0.30 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.5 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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