2013 Week 11 (14-18 Nov) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 81%   5 Cincinnati              41 27.8,    30 Cleveland               20 15.7
 78%   4 Seattle                 41 29.4,    23 Minnesota               20 18.4
 75%   2 New Orleans             23 27.8,     6 San Francisco           20 19.9
 69%   3 Denver                  27 29.4,    12 Kansas City             17 21.9
 68%  11 Philadelphia            24 30.8,    25 Washington              16 22.2
 63%  21 Miami                   20 22.9,    13 San Diego               16 21.5
 62%  28 Tampa Bay               41 24.1,    22 Atlanta                 28 22.0
 62%  27 Buffalo                 37 23.7,    26 New York Jets           14 20.7
 62%  10 Chicago                 23 23.1,     9 Baltimore               20 20.1
 61%  16 Arizona                 27 23.9,    32 Jacksonville            14 17.3
 61%  14 Pittsburgh              37 27.7,    20 Detroit                 27 21.7

 47%  19 New York Giants         27 24.9,     7 Green Bay               13 25.3
 40%  18 Indianapolis            30 21.0,    15 Tennessee               27 25.8
 38%   8 Carolina                24 20.7,     1 New England             20 23.3
 33%  31 Oakland                 28 24.7,    29 Houston                 23 33.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.00  10 1.26   2 1.31   1 1.23   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  15  11   9.8 1.12

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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