2013 Week 12 (21-25 Nov) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 83%  11 Green Bay               26 31.0,    27 Minnesota               26 21.0
 69%   6 Baltimore               19 24.5,    24 New York Jets            3 14.4
 69%   1 New England             34 33.5,     3 Denver                  31 25.7
 66%   2 New Orleans             17 30.1,    23 Atlanta                 13 23.7
 62%   8 San Francisco           27 24.8,    28 Washington               6 22.4
 61%  12 Tennessee               23 25.4,    31 Oakland                 19 19.8
 60%  17 Arizona                 40 24.8,    20 Indianapolis            11 20.4
 60%  13 Pittsburgh              27 25.1,    30 Cleveland               11 20.9

 50%   7 Carolina                20 18.8,    19 Miami                   16 18.9
 39%  21 Tampa Bay               24 23.6,    22 Detroit                 21 26.5
 39%  18 Dallas                  24 22.4,    15 New York Giants         21 27.6
 38%  14 San Diego               41 18.9,    16 Kansas City             38 21.8
 37%  25 St. Louis               42 21.5,    10 Chicago                 21 23.5
 33%  32 Jacksonville            13 23.9,    29 Houston                  6 32.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.91  11 0.85   0 0.00   1 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14   7   8.9 0.78

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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