prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 1 New England 34 35.4, 29 Houston 31 25.5
73% 18 Dallas 31 29.1, 31 Oakland 24 20.1
68% 7 San Francisco 23 25.0, 20 St. Louis 13 16.4
67% 8 Carolina 27 23.6, 21 Tampa Bay 6 15.3
63% 23 Minnesota 23 26.4, 17 Chicago 20 24.2
63% 3 Denver 35 27.1, 16 Kansas City 28 25.4
62% 13 New York Giants 24 25.0, 28 Washington 17 22.8
61% 11 Philadelphia 24 25.0, 12 Arizona 21 20.6
61% 5 Baltimore 22 22.7, 9 Pittsburgh 20 17.1
61% 4 Seattle 34 25.8, 2 New Orleans 7 25.0
51% 25 Indianapolis 22 23.8, 15 Tennessee 14 23.6
40% 32 Jacksonville 32 19.3, 30 Cleveland 28 24.2
39% 26 Detroit 40 26.0, 10 Green Bay 10 28.7
38% 22 Atlanta 34 22.7, 27 Buffalo 31 24.9
38% 19 Miami 23 18.1, 24 New York Jets 3 20.5
37% 6 Cincinnati 17 21.5, 14 San Diego 10 22.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.95 13 0.98 2 1.35 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.1 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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