prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 1 New England 27 36.4, 32 Cleveland 26 16.0
73% 5 Baltimore 29 26.7, 20 Minnesota 26 17.5
70% 6 Cincinnati 42 27.0, 24 Indianapolis 28 17.8
68% 10 Green Bay 22 28.9, 17 Atlanta 21 22.5
66% 15 Philadelphia 34 29.6, 22 Detroit 20 23.1
65% 27 New York Jets 37 23.9, 30 Oakland 27 17.0
64% 13 Arizona 30 24.5, 23 St. Louis 10 18.4
63% 4 New Orleans 31 25.3, 9 Carolina 13 19.9
62% 31 Jacksonville 27 28.6, 28 Houston 20 27.3
62% 3 Denver 51 31.3, 12 Tennessee 28 24.3
61% 25 Tampa Bay 27 24.6, 26 Buffalo 6 20.4
61% 19 Chicago 45 28.0, 21 Dallas 28 24.2
61% 14 San Diego 37 23.8, 11 New York Giants 14 20.6
58% 16 Kansas City 45 22.7, 29 Washington 10 21.7
48% 8 San Francisco 19 20.1, 2 Seattle 17 20.3
35% 18 Miami 34 16.5, 7 Pittsburgh 28 23.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.91 11 1.43 2 1.40 0 0.00 1 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 14 10.4 1.34
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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