prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
63% 12 Indianapolis 45 25.3, 18 Kansas City 44 18.9
39% 10 San Francisco 23 22.7, 6 Green Bay 20 27.9
39% 7 San Diego 27 20.3, 3 Cincinnati 10 25.5
39% 5 New Orleans 26 25.9, 9 Philadelphia 24 28.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 4 0.41 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 1 2.5 0.41
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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