prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 1 New England 43 33.9, 12 Indianapolis 22 21.3
64% 2 Denver 24 30.1, 4 San Diego 17 24.7
62% 3 Seattle 23 26.1, 5 New Orleans 15 21.4
37% 6 San Francisco 23 19.0, 11 Carolina 10 21.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 3 1.06 0 0.00 1 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.8 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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