2014 Week 2 (11-15 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 71%   8 Denver                  24 29.5,    29 Kansas City             17 16.0
 62%  30 Washington              41 20.1,    31 Jacksonville            10 14.1
 62%  23 Houston                 30 19.5,    27 Oakland                 14 16.9
 62%  20 Baltimore               26 23.9,    13 Pittsburgh               6 21.8
 62%  19 Green Bay               31 22.7,    24 New York Jets           24 19.5
 62%  16 Arizona                 25 23.1,    28 New York Giants         14 19.0
 62%   6 Cincinnati              24 30.9,     9 Atlanta                 10 23.9
 50%  18 Carolina                24 23.1,     4 Detroit                  7 23.0

 49%  12 Buffalo                 29 23.3,     7 Miami                   10 23.5
 48%  21 Cleveland               26 30.6,    11 New Orleans             24 31.2
 47%  10 Philadelphia            30 25.9,    17 Indianapolis            27 26.5
 38%  15 San Diego               30 20.7,     1 Seattle                 21 25.9
 35%  14 New England             30 19.4,     2 Minnesota                7 32.3
 30%  22 Dallas                  26 15.2,     3 Tennessee               10 30.1
 28%  32 St. Louis               19  9.4,    26 Tampa Bay               17 23.3
 26%  25 Chicago                 28 14.3,     5 San Francisco           20 29.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 0.48   8 1.20   4 0.35   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   8   9.9 0.81

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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