prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 New England 16 35.8, 32 Oakland 9 7.6
78% 5 Dallas 34 26.6, 29 St. Louis 31 16.6
72% 4 Cincinnati 33 24.7, 25 Tennessee 7 11.4
67% 21 Atlanta 56 24.9, 27 Tampa Bay 14 16.8
67% 19 Indianapolis 44 30.0, 31 Jacksonville 17 21.1
64% 3 Philadelphia 37 29.4, 15 Washington 34 21.7
62% 16 Arizona 23 21.5, 11 San Francisco 14 18.4
62% 13 New Orleans 20 27.2, 24 Minnesota 9 21.5
62% 12 Detroit 19 28.7, 8 Green Bay 7 26.8
62% 10 Baltimore 23 21.9, 22 Cleveland 21 19.3
52% 9 Seattle 26 27.1, 2 Denver 20 26.8
42% 6 San Diego 22 21.9, 14 Buffalo 10 23.1
39% 17 Chicago 27 21.7, 20 New York Jets 19 23.2
38% 26 Kansas City 34 16.7, 28 Miami 15 20.1
35% 30 New York Giants 30 15.3, 18 Houston 17 23.1
30% 23 Pittsburgh 37 13.6, 7 Carolina 19 25.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.91 10 1.11 3 0.91 1 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.5 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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