2014 Week 4 (25-29 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 88%   4 San Diego               33 37.2,    32 Jacksonville            14  9.4
 73%  12 Indianapolis            41 28.0,    27 Tennessee               17 18.9
 66%   8 Dallas                  38 29.7,    15 New Orleans             17 24.1
 64%  14 Baltimore               38 24.4,    24 Carolina                10 14.4
 62%  18 San Francisco           26 25.1,     7 Philadelphia            21 24.0
 59%  25 Houston                 23 20.4,    17 Buffalo                 17 19.2
 58%  16 Detroit                 24 22.9,    26 New York Jets           17 21.9
 42%  28 Miami                   38 19.4,    31 Oakland                 14 20.6

 39%  23 New York Giants         45 20.6,    20 Washington              14 25.4
 39%  11 Green Bay               38 23.4,    10 Chicago                 17 29.4
 38%  22 Minnesota               41 21.4,     5 Atlanta                 28 25.3
 38%  19 Kansas City             41 20.1,     2 New England             14 23.7
 23%  29 Tampa Bay               27 15.2,     3 Pittsburgh              24 34.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.15   7 0.69   2 0.67   1 1.14   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  13   7   8.5 0.82

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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