prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 9 Seattle 30 29.6, 31 Oakland 24 10.6
84% 15 Cincinnati 33 29.0, 32 Jacksonville 23 13.6
84% 4 Kansas City 24 30.9, 28 New York Jets 10 12.6
66% 26 Cleveland 22 27.0, 29 Tampa Bay 17 19.1
63% 10 Indianapolis 40 26.3, 20 New York Giants 24 24.8
62% 12 New Orleans 28 27.5, 23 Carolina 10 25.4
62% 7 Philadelphia 31 26.4, 21 Houston 21 24.6
62% 2 New England 43 32.6, 1 Denver 21 31.1
60% 24 Minnesota 29 22.3, 22 Washington 26 18.9
50% 16 Miami 37 23.3, 6 San Diego 0 23.3
38% 11 Pittsburgh 43 23.6, 3 Baltimore 23 26.2
32% 14 Arizona 28 20.9, 8 Dallas 17 26.5
12% 30 St. Louis 13 15.9, 13 San Francisco 10 30.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.82 7 1.12 0 0.00 4 0.87 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 10 9.0 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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