prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 13 Arizona 31 29.6, 27 St. Louis 14 15.2
86% 3 Baltimore 21 31.0, 28 Tennessee 7 13.6
83% 5 Green Bay 55 33.1, 18 Chicago 14 22.8
82% 7 Philadelphia 45 31.3, 25 Carolina 21 18.1
81% 2 Denver 41 34.3, 31 Oakland 17 20.3
78% 12 Seattle 38 27.6, 20 New York Giants 17 18.6
75% 11 Dallas 31 28.2, 32 Jacksonville 17 18.9
60% 4 Kansas City 17 22.9, 19 Buffalo 13 19.6
59% 24 Atlanta 27 25.3, 30 Tampa Bay 17 24.5
40% 16 Detroit 20 20.1, 9 Miami 16 21.1
35% 29 New York Jets 20 21.6, 10 Pittsburgh 13 29.5
30% 17 San Francisco 27 20.2, 8 New Orleans 24 27.4
18% 26 Cleveland 24 18.0, 15 Cincinnati 3 26.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.71 3 0.54 3 0.89 6 1.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 9 9.7 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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