prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 15 San Diego 13 30.9, 31 Oakland 6 16.2
81% 10 Miami 22 24.9, 18 Buffalo 9 15.8
69% 6 Kansas City 24 24.8, 8 Seattle 20 17.9
64% 12 Arizona 14 24.2, 16 Detroit 6 16.9
63% 14 San Francisco 16 23.3, 21 New York Giants 10 21.7
62% 13 Pittsburgh 27 26.1, 28 Tennessee 24 21.3
61% 22 Chicago 21 24.0, 24 Minnesota 13 21.8
61% 3 Green Bay 53 33.8, 5 Philadelphia 20 28.7
59% 1 New England 42 32.2, 7 Indianapolis 20 28.7
39% 25 Atlanta 19 22.9, 26 Carolina 17 25.2
38% 20 Houston 23 20.3, 19 Cleveland 7 22.7
23% 30 Tampa Bay 27 18.5, 23 Washington 7 29.0
19% 29 St. Louis 22 21.9, 2 Denver 7 33.6
18% 17 Cincinnati 27 21.7, 9 New Orleans 10 31.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.68 8 1.19 1 0.00 3 0.41 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.7 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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