prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 2 Green Bay 43 36.1, 22 Atlanta 37 20.7
85% 3 Denver 24 31.1, 18 Buffalo 17 20.4
78% 20 Minnesota 30 24.8, 30 New York Jets 24 15.0
71% 17 Detroit 34 24.6, 28 Tampa Bay 17 14.7
71% 1 New England 23 30.7, 10 San Diego 14 23.8
65% 8 Indianapolis 25 26.7, 26 Cleveland 24 21.7
62% 16 St. Louis 24 26.5, 27 Washington 0 23.2
60% 23 Houston 27 24.2, 31 Jacksonville 13 19.9
47% 19 Arizona 17 19.8, 7 Kansas City 14 20.1
44% 14 Dallas 41 25.0, 21 Chicago 28 25.5
40% 6 Seattle 24 24.1, 5 Philadelphia 14 26.7
38% 13 Pittsburgh 42 21.7, 12 Cincinnati 21 26.1
37% 24 New York Giants 36 24.5, 29 Tennessee 7 25.9
37% 4 Baltimore 28 22.1, 9 Miami 13 23.9
25% 32 Oakland 24 14.6, 15 San Francisco 13 24.2
15% 25 Carolina 41 21.2, 11 New Orleans 10 31.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.44 5 0.63 4 1.02 3 0.78 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.9 0.73
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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