2014 Week 15 (11-15 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%   4 Baltimore               20 33.6,    32 Jacksonville            12 11.3
 91%   1 New England             41 31.2,    12 Miami                   13 17.2
 89%   6 Kansas City             31 31.3,    31 Oakland                 13 12.3
 81%  20 New York Giants         24 29.8,    29 Washington              13 18.8
 77%   8 Indianapolis            17 31.3,    23 Houston                 10 23.0
 76%   5 Seattle                 17 24.2,    22 San Francisco            7 12.9
 73%  24 Carolina                19 25.5,    27 Tampa Bay               17 18.1
 63%   3 Denver                  22 28.6,    11 San Diego               10 27.1
 62%  14 Cincinnati              30 21.7,    26 Cleveland                0 20.0
 59%  15 Detroit                 16 24.4,    18 Minnesota               14 19.7
 59%   9 Pittsburgh              27 29.1,    21 Atlanta                 20 28.1

 38%  16 New Orleans             31 26.8,    25 Chicago                 15 28.7
 37%  28 New York Jets           16 21.8,    30 Tennessee               11 22.7
 37%  10 Dallas                  38 26.0,     7 Philadelphia            27 30.9
 36%  19 Buffalo                 21 23.3,     2 Green Bay               13 27.5
 36%  17 Arizona                 12 17.5,    13 St. Louis                6 22.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 1.70   7 0.45   3 1.33   2 1.18   2 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  11  11.4 0.97

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net