prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 4 Dallas 24 30.0, 14 Detroit 20 19.6
61% 12 Indianapolis 26 25.6, 10 Cincinnati 10 23.6
59% 18 Carolina 27 21.4, 21 Arizona 16 18.1
40% 6 Baltimore 30 22.6, 8 Pittsburgh 17 25.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.70 2 0.82 0 0.00 1 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.6 1.14
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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