prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 1 New England 45 31.8, 8 Indianapolis 7 21.3
60% 3 Seattle 28 25.7, 2 Green Bay 22 22.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 1.66 1 1.25 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 2 2 1.4 1.43
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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