prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
66% 8 San Diego 33 25.0, 19 Detroit 28 18.6
65% 6 Dallas 27 27.9, 22 New York Giants 26 19.6
65% 1 New England 28 28.8, 10 Pittsburgh 21 19.4
64% 16 Miami 17 24.0, 28 Washington 10 22.1
64% 4 Green Bay 31 25.8, 24 Chicago 23 23.7
63% 27 New York Jets 31 23.8, 30 Cleveland 10 18.7
63% 21 Carolina 20 23.0, 31 Jacksonville 9 20.8
63% 18 Buffalo 27 22.7, 13 Indianapolis 14 20.9
63% 15 Arizona 31 23.5, 11 New Orleans 19 21.2
63% 9 Denver 19 25.4, 3 Baltimore 13 22.9
62% 12 San Francisco 20 23.9, 17 Minnesota 3 20.0
60% 7 Cincinnati 33 24.5, 32 Oakland 13 19.6
58% 5 Kansas City 27 21.3, 25 Houston 20 20.5
51% 23 Atlanta 26 25.3, 14 Philadelphia 24 25.2
44% 20 St. Louis 34 20.0, 2 Seattle 31 20.5
39% 29 Tennessee 42 18.9, 26 Tampa Bay 14 24.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.22 13 1.46 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 14 9.9 1.42
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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