2015 Week 3 (24-28 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 85%   4 New England             51 36.4,    29 Jacksonville            17 16.2
 77%   9 Seattle                 26 42.8,    32 Chicago                  0 24.6
 72%   2 Green Bay               38 26.2,    10 Kansas City             28 15.9
 63%   1 Arizona                 47 27.6,    18 San Francisco            7 12.6
 62%  24 New York Giants         32 23.9,    23 Washington              21 20.8
 62%   5 Denver                  24 25.5,    19 Detroit                 12 20.8
 61%  26 Houston                 19 32.3,    31 Tampa Bay                9 24.1
 61%  12 Carolina                27 28.7,    25 New Orleans             22 22.3
 61%   3 Pittsburgh              12 25.2,    22 St. Louis                6 19.6
 58%  20 Minnesota               31 26.0,    15 San Diego               14 25.1

 48%   8 Cincinnati              28 22.9,    16 Baltimore               24 23.4
 38%  30 Oakland                 27 24.2,    27 Cleveland               20 28.2
 38%  21 Philadelphia            24 16.6,     7 New York Jets           17 23.4
 38%  11 Buffalo                 41 16.7,    13 Miami                   14 18.7
 36%  14 Atlanta                 39 15.8,     6 Dallas                  28 24.7
 35%  28 Indianapolis            35 19.0,    17 Tennessee               33 29.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.90  11 0.88   2 1.34   1 1.17   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  10  10.3 0.97

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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