prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 17 San Diego 30 32.8, 29 Cleveland 27 21.1
76% 9 Atlanta 48 27.1, 22 Houston 21 16.7
70% 3 Seattle 13 26.3, 20 Detroit 10 12.7
66% 27 Indianapolis 16 30.7, 32 Jacksonville 13 21.6
63% 7 Green Bay 17 32.2, 24 San Francisco 3 23.2
63% 6 Cincinnati 36 26.0, 11 Kansas City 21 18.5
63% 5 Denver 23 25.0, 13 Minnesota 20 14.5
61% 10 Carolina 37 25.1, 31 Tampa Bay 23 17.4
60% 30 Chicago 22 31.0, 28 Oakland 20 29.2
47% 25 New Orleans 26 31.4, 15 Dallas 20 31.9
44% 12 New York Jets 27 17.7, 23 Miami 14 18.5
38% 26 Washington 23 21.1, 16 Philadelphia 20 24.4
35% 19 New York Giants 24 16.9, 8 Buffalo 10 27.2
26% 14 Baltimore 23 17.8, 4 Pittsburgh 20 27.8
15% 21 St. Louis 24 9.5, 1 Arizona 22 29.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.59 7 1.13 4 1.00 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 9 10.0 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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