prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 2 Green Bay 27 33.4, 19 San Diego 20 18.8
74% 1 New England 34 32.8, 21 Indianapolis 27 19.3
67% 12 Minnesota 16 26.0, 17 Kansas City 10 19.6
66% 6 Denver 26 28.4, 29 Cleveland 23 19.5
65% 10 New York Jets 34 22.6, 25 Washington 20 13.3
62% 11 Philadelphia 27 26.2, 13 New York Giants 7 21.2
61% 7 Cincinnati 34 22.5, 15 Buffalo 21 19.2
60% 26 Detroit 37 26.4, 27 Chicago 34 22.1
55% 4 Pittsburgh 25 21.7, 3 Arizona 13 20.9
39% 22 New Orleans 31 26.8, 8 Atlanta 21 30.3
38% 30 Houston 31 24.4, 32 Jacksonville 20 26.2
38% 23 San Francisco 25 25.1, 14 Baltimore 20 26.9
37% 24 Miami 38 18.5, 18 Tennessee 10 24.3
36% 9 Carolina 27 15.9, 5 Seattle 23 21.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.82 11 0.86 1 1.35 1 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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