prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 New England 30 31.2, 11 New York Jets 23 13.4
78% 17 Miami 44 27.1, 28 Houston 26 18.8
71% 22 St. Louis 24 25.5, 30 Cleveland 6 18.3
64% 26 Washington 31 28.0, 31 Tampa Bay 30 21.3
63% 5 Arizona 26 28.9, 13 Baltimore 18 19.3
62% 14 New York Giants 27 25.2, 15 Dallas 20 20.5
62% 12 Minnesota 28 22.5, 24 Detroit 19 20.5
62% 10 Atlanta 10 28.8, 27 Tennessee 7 22.1
61% 7 Seattle 20 23.0, 20 San Francisco 3 20.7
60% 8 Carolina 27 23.8, 9 Philadelphia 16 19.9
39% 32 Jacksonville 34 21.5, 19 Buffalo 31 24.3
39% 21 New Orleans 27 27.2, 23 Indianapolis 21 29.7
39% 16 Kansas City 23 19.8, 3 Pittsburgh 13 23.9
15% 29 Oakland 37 21.1, 18 San Diego 29 30.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.68 9 1.08 2 1.34 2 0.59 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.4 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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