prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 New England 36 33.5, 16 Miami 7 16.2
75% 8 Carolina 29 28.7, 23 Indianapolis 26 18.0
71% 13 Kansas City 45 27.6, 24 Detroit 10 18.4
65% 5 Arizona 34 29.7, 29 Cleveland 20 18.8
64% 15 Baltimore 29 31.3, 22 San Diego 26 24.6
61% 30 Houston 20 25.8, 28 Tennessee 6 22.8
61% 18 New Orleans 52 25.7, 14 New York Giants 49 23.2
61% 10 Minnesota 23 23.7, 25 Chicago 20 20.7
61% 6 Seattle 13 22.7, 19 Dallas 12 20.9
60% 17 St. Louis 27 21.8, 20 San Francisco 6 17.2
59% 7 Denver 29 24.6, 2 Green Bay 10 23.6
40% 4 Cincinnati 16 19.7, 3 Pittsburgh 10 23.2
39% 27 Oakland 34 19.5, 12 New York Jets 20 22.1
15% 31 Tampa Bay 23 17.9, 9 Atlanta 20 34.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.69 8 1.21 2 1.37 2 0.59 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 11 9.3 1.18
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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