prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 7 Pittsburgh 30 33.1, 31 Cleveland 9 15.7
68% 1 New England 27 32.0, 15 New York Giants 26 21.7
62% 8 Carolina 27 25.4, 27 Tennessee 10 18.6
60% 10 Minnesota 30 24.7, 25 Oakland 14 21.5
40% 30 Tampa Bay 10 22.6, 16 Dallas 6 25.9
40% 6 Arizona 39 18.9, 4 Seattle 32 22.4
39% 26 Washington 47 27.6, 21 New Orleans 14 28.8
39% 24 Chicago 37 16.3, 13 St. Louis 13 22.3
39% 20 Buffalo 22 19.6, 17 New York Jets 17 24.2
28% 18 Miami 20 19.3, 9 Philadelphia 19 27.0
26% 11 Kansas City 29 18.0, 3 Denver 13 25.7
15% 32 Jacksonville 22 18.9, 14 Baltimore 20 33.3
15% 29 Detroit 18 18.0, 5 Green Bay 16 35.7
15% 28 Houston 10 16.2, 2 Cincinnati 6 33.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 8 0.61 2 0.00 4 0.29 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 4 9.8 0.41
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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