2015 Week 12 (26-30 Nov) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 85%   9 Cincinnati              31 24.9,    16 St. Louis                7 14.4
 82%   3 Kansas City             30 26.0,    21 Buffalo                 22 14.4
 68%  20 Indianapolis            25 27.5,    25 Tampa Bay               12 20.6
 65%  15 Baltimore               33 27.3,    32 Cleveland               27 21.6
 62%   2 Seattle                 39 22.4,     4 Pittsburgh              30 18.8
 61%  26 Houston                 24 29.5,    24 New Orleans              6 26.9
 61%  22 New York Jets           38 22.7,    17 Miami                   20 21.2
 61%   7 Carolina                33 22.5,    12 Dallas                  14 20.6
 60%   8 Arizona                 19 25.8,    19 San Francisco           13 20.7

 46%  23 San Diego               31 26.2,    31 Jacksonville            25 26.8
 41%  28 Detroit                 45 24.0,    18 Philadelphia            14 25.0
 40%  30 Oakland                 24 21.3,    29 Tennessee               21 24.6
 40%  27 Washington              20 24.7,    14 New York Giants         14 27.6
 39%  10 Minnesota               20 21.5,    11 Atlanta                 10 23.2
 38%   6 Denver                  30 23.3,     1 New England             24 27.7
 23%  13 Chicago                 17 18.9,     5 Green Bay               13 29.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.00  11 1.03   1 0.00   2 1.19   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   9  10.4 0.87

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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